According to recent reports, Russia is allegedly pursuing a space-based nuclear weapon that could target and destroy satellites in low Earth orbit. This has sparked alarm and concern in Washington and other countries that rely on satellites for communication, navigation, surveillance, and other purposes. However, some experts question the credibility and viability of such a weapon, as well as the strategic logic behind it.
The Washington Post, citing two officials with knowledge of the intelligence, reported that the weapon in question is a “nuclear-armed,” not “nuclear-powered,” device. This means that it would carry a nuclear warhead that could be detonated near a satellite, creating a blast wave and radiation that could damage or disable nearby satellites. The weapon would be launched from Earth and placed in orbit, where it would remain dormant until activated by a command from the ground.
The Post also reported that the weapon is part of a larger Russian project called “Nudol,” which is aimed at developing anti-satellite capabilities. Russia has previously tested ground-based missiles that can intercept satellites in low Earth orbit, as well as “co-orbital” satellites that can maneuver close to other satellites and potentially interfere with them.
However, some analysts doubt that Russia has the technological capability or the political will to deploy such a weapon in space. Mai’a Cross, an expert on space diplomacy at Northeastern University, told Northeastern Global News that Russia may be too crippled by the war in Ukraine to ever test such a weapon. She also pointed out that using a nuclear weapon in space could have “cascading effects” that could harm other satellites, including Russia’s own.
Moreover, some experts question the strategic rationale behind developing a space-based nuclear weapon. Brian Weeden, director of program planning at the Secure World Foundation, a nonprofit organization that promotes cooperative and sustainable use of outer space, told NBC News that such a weapon would be “very destabilizing” and “very escalatory”. He argued that it would be seen as a threat by other countries, especially the United States and China, which have more satellites than Russia and more capabilities to defend them. He also said that it would violate existing international norms and treaties that prohibit the use of nuclear weapons in outer space.
Therefore, it is possible that Russia is bluffing or exaggerating its progress on such a weapon to deter or intimidate its adversaries, or to gain leverage in future negotiations on arms control or space security. However, this could also backfire and provoke a counter-reaction from other countries that could escalate the risk of conflict or instability in space. As Cross said, “Space is not weaponized right now, but it could be very quickly if countries cross that line”.
To provide more detail and data on this topic, here are some additional facts:
- As of January 2022, there were 8,261 individual satellites orbiting the Earth, according to the United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs (UNOOSA). Out of these, only 4,852 were operational, according to the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS).
- The United States had the largest number of operational satellites (2,062), followed by China (592) and Russia (172). The United States also had the largest number of inactive satellites (2,494), followed by Russia (1,876) and China (1,015).
- The majority of operational satellites were used for communication purposes (3,135), followed by Earth observation (1,030) and technology development/demonstration (385). The majority of inactive satellites were used for military purposes (1,587), followed by science (1,029) and technology development/demonstration (241).
- The average cost of launching a satellite ranges from $10 million to $400 million, depending on the size, weight and orbit of the satellite. The average lifespan of a satellite ranges from 5 to 15 years, depending on the type and quality of the satellite.
- The main threats to satellites include collisions with space debris or other satellites, cyberattacks or jamming of signals, natural hazards such as solar flares or geomagnetic storms, and intentional attacks by anti-satellite weapons.
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