A new landmark scientific assessment concludes that a global shift in food production and consumption patterns could reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the food system by over half. The report, released by the EAT-Lancet Commission, highlights that the food system is currently responsible for approximately 30% of the world’s total emissions and is the primary driver behind the transgression of five critical planetary boundaries that maintain Earth’s stability.
A team of international experts from over 35 countries contributed to the report, titled “Healthy, Sustainable, and Just Food Systems,” which provides a comprehensive evaluation of the global food system’s impact on climate change and human health. Researchers underscore that alongside environmental benefits, these transformations could also prevent up to 15 million premature deaths each year and improve food security for billions. The commission warns, however, that without these significant changes, the food system alone could cause global temperatures to exceed the 1.5°C warming threshold, even if fossil fuel use were completely eliminated.
Exceeding Critical Earth System Thresholds
The report’s analysis is framed around the concept of “planetary boundaries,” which are nine critical processes that regulate the stability and resilience of the Earth system. The global food system is identified as the single largest contributor to violating five of these boundaries, including climate change, biodiversity loss, land system change, and flows of nitrogen and phosphorus. This massive environmental footprint stems from a range of activities, from fertilizer use and deforestation for agricultural expansion to methane emissions from livestock and energy use in food processing and transportation.
The findings reveal a significant imbalance in the global food system’s impact. The wealthiest 30% of the world’s population are responsible for over 70% of the food-related environmental damage. At the same time, more than half of the global population does not have access to a healthy diet, and over a billion people are undernourished, despite the world producing enough food to feed everyone. This highlights deep inequities that must be addressed in the transition to a sustainable system.
Pathways to a Sustainable Future
The commission outlines several key strategies to achieve the necessary transformation by 2050. These are not presented as single solutions but as a package of interventions that must be implemented together. Researchers at Cornell University, who led the modeling section of the report, ran simulations projecting various scenarios to identify the most effective approaches.
Core Strategies for Transformation
The report identifies eight primary solutions to restructure the global food system. A central recommendation is a significant reduction in food loss and waste, which accounts for a substantial portion of emissions and resource use. Another key lever is the adoption of sustainable agricultural practices that can increase productivity without expanding farmland, alongside efforts to halt the conversion of forests and other natural ecosystems for food production. Preserving and restoring these ecosystems is particularly crucial for low-income countries, where more than half of food-related emissions come from land clearing.
The Planetary Health Diet
A major focus of the report is the promotion of a “Planetary Health Diet,” a flexible dietary pattern that is both healthy for people and sustainable for the planet. This diet emphasizes whole grains, fruits, vegetables, nuts, and legumes, with modest consumption of meat and dairy. The commission suggests specific targets, such as limiting red meat to about one serving per week, while poultry, fish, and eggs could be consumed a couple of times a week.
Widespread adoption of this dietary pattern could yield profound health benefits, with the commission increasing its estimate of preventable premature deaths from 11.6 million in its 2019 report to 15 million annually. Walter Willett, a professor of epidemiology and nutrition at Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health and co-chairman of the commission, noted that the diet is not a “one-size-fits-all” prescription but a flexible framework that can be adapted to different cultures and individual preferences.
Ensuring Equity and Justice
The report stresses that a sustainable food system must also be an equitable and just one. It points to significant disparities, noting that 32% of all food system workers earn less than a living wage. Furthermore, the report highlights the role of corporate concentration and power as a driver of inequities that can undermine people’s rights within the food system, a point emphasized by contributing author Dr. Jennifer Clapp.
To address these issues, the commission calls for policies that protect vulnerable populations and ensure that the benefits of the food system transformation are shared widely. This includes supporting smallholder farmers, strengthening land rights, and ensuring access to healthy and affordable food for all communities. The goal is to move the global population into a “safe and just space” where nutritional needs are met without overshooting the planet’s ecological limits—a space currently occupied by less than 1% of the world’s people.
Investment and Implementation by 2050
Achieving these ambitious goals will require significant financial investment and political will. The report estimates that annual investments will need to increase to $260 billion to halve agrifood emissions by 2030 and achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. The authors point out that this figure is less than half the amount currently spent on agricultural subsidies each year, many of which are environmentally harmful.
The modeling lead, Daniel Mason-D’Croz, cautioned that individual changes must be accompanied by systemic improvements. Dietary shifts alone will not be enough without parallel gains in agricultural productivity and reductions in food loss. The report serves as a roadmap, demonstrating that an integrated approach can simultaneously improve global health, ensure food security, and achieve environmental sustainability by mid-century.
