A widely held theory that psychological distress and conspiracy beliefs fuel each other in a “vicious cycle” is being called into question by new research. A multi-national longitudinal study found only minimal evidence that feelings of anxiety, depression, or stress lead people to adopt conspiratorial worldviews, challenging a common narrative about the origins of these beliefs.
The findings suggest that belief in conspiracy theories may be a relatively stable worldview rather than a direct consequence of fluctuating emotional states. This has significant implications for potential interventions, suggesting that strategies aimed at reducing psychological distress are unlikely to be effective in countering conspiracy beliefs. While such beliefs may not directly cause short-term distress to the believer, the researchers note they can still inflict societal harm by contributing to the spread of misinformation.
Examining the ‘Vicious Cycle’ Theory
For years, a prominent explanation for what draws people to conspiracy theories has been the existential threat model. This model posits that individuals experiencing psychological distress, such as anxiety or a sense of powerlessness, search for explanations to make sense of their distressing world. Conspiracy theories can offer a seemingly simple answer by identifying a powerful, nefarious outgroup to blame for societal problems or personal struggles. According to this theory, adopting such a belief does not resolve the distress and may actually worsen it, creating a feedback loop where conspiracy thinking and negative emotions intensify each other.
This perspective is based largely on previous research that found positive correlations between measures of distress and belief in conspiracies. However, a simple correlation does not prove causation; it is equally possible that holding conspiratorial beliefs makes a person more distressed, or that a third, unmeasured factor contributes to both. The new research sought to overcome this limitation by tracking people over time to see if changes in distress preceded changes in belief, or vice-versa.
A Multi-National Longitudinal Study
To untangle cause and effect, researchers from Massey University in New Zealand designed a study to follow the same group of individuals over an extended period. This longitudinal approach provides a much clearer picture of whether changes in one variable truly lead to subsequent changes in another.
Research Design
The preregistered study involved surveying participants monthly for seven consecutive months, from October 2022 to March 2023. This method allowed the research team to analyze how shifts in participants’ reported levels of anxiety, depression, and stress affected their belief in conspiracy theories in the following months. Similarly, they could test the reverse: whether a change in conspiracy belief led to a later change in distress. To analyze the complex data, the team used a multiple indicator random intercept cross-lagged panel model (RI-CLPM), a statistical technique adept at separating stable, long-term traits from temporary, short-term fluctuations within individuals.
Participant Data
The study gathered data from a sample of 970 participants located in three different countries: Australia, New Zealand, and the United Kingdom. This multi-national sample enhances the generalizability of the findings beyond a single region. The research was conducted by psychologists Nick Fox, Matt Williams, and Stephen Hill of Massey University.
Limited Evidence for a Causal Link
After analyzing the seven waves of data, the researchers found very little support for the vicious cycle hypothesis. The results showed that temporary increases in psychological distress did not meaningfully predict a subsequent increase in a person’s belief in conspiracy theories. Of 15 specific hypotheses the researchers tested, only one found statistical support: a small, cross-lagged effect of anxiety on belief. This indicates that while heightened anxiety might have a minor influence, depression and stress did not appear to be causal factors.
Furthermore, the study found no evidence for the other half of the proposed cycle. There was no indication that holding stronger conspiracy beliefs led to an increase in anxiety, depression, or stress in the following months. This directly contradicts the notion that these beliefs are inherently harmful to an individual’s own mental health by creating more distress. The overall conclusion is that such beliefs are more likely a feature of a stable worldview than a coping mechanism for immediate emotional turmoil.
Reconsidering Intervention Strategies
The study’s conclusions have direct relevance for public health and efforts to combat misinformation. Some experts have proposed that interventions designed to reduce stress and anxiety could serve as a tool to decrease conspiracy beliefs. However, if distress is not a primary driver of these beliefs, as the new results suggest, then that approach is unlikely to yield positive results. Focusing on mental wellness, while beneficial for other reasons, may not be the key to pulling people out of conspiratorial “rabbit holes.”
The authors are careful to note that this does not mean conspiracy theories are harmless. While the study found no evidence that they cause short-term psychological harm to the believer, the potential for wider societal damage remains significant. The spread of unsubstantiated theories can erode trust in institutions, promote division, and obstruct effective public policy.
Broader Scientific Context
This longitudinal study adds a crucial layer of nuance to a complex field of research. While some previous cross-sectional studies have shown a correlation, others have also concluded that the effect of distress on conspiracy belief, if it exists at all, is not large. A separate preregistered study involving over 1,000 participants found only a small positive effect for perceived stress but not anxiety.
Other research highlights the complex role that distress can play. For instance, a 2022 study on COVID-19 conspiracy theories found a significant interaction between distress and conspiracist ideation. In that context, the association between believing pandemic-related conspiracies and supporting violent radicalization was substantially stronger for individuals reporting high levels of psychological distress. This suggests that while distress may not directly cause the initial belief, it may moderate or magnify its potential consequences. Taken together, the body of research indicates that the relationship between how people feel and what they believe is less straightforward than previously assumed.