Hurricane Melissa intensified into a historic Category 5 storm on Monday, churning relentlessly toward Jamaica with maximum sustained winds of 185 mph, threatening the island nation with what forecasters are calling a catastrophic and life-threatening event. The storm, the most intense of the North Atlantic hurricane season, is on a direct path for a Tuesday landfall, promising devastating impacts from extreme winds, massive rainfall, and a significant storm surge that officials fear could overwhelm communities.
The National Hurricane Center has issued dire warnings, predicting that Melissa will make landfall as one of the most powerful hurricanes to ever strike Jamaica. Its exceptionally slow forward speed is expected to worsen the effects, allowing the storm to unleash torrential rain for a prolonged period, which could lead to widespread, catastrophic flash flooding and landslides across the island’s mountainous terrain. Jamaican authorities have ordered evacuations and urged residents to seek safe shelter, though some officials expressed concern that the warnings were not being heeded with sufficient urgency in the hours before the storm’s arrival.
An Unprecedented Meteorological Force
Melissa’s development has been closely monitored by meteorologists, who watched it grow from a cluster of thunderstorms off the coast of West Africa into a formidable tropical storm north of Venezuela. Over the weekend, the system underwent a period of rapid intensification, strengthening to a major hurricane and eventually reaching the top of the Saffir-Simpson scale as a Category 5 storm on Monday morning. By early Tuesday, its peak intensity had surpassed that of Hurricane Katrina in 2005, with maximum sustained winds reaching 185 mph, just shy of the Atlantic record.
The storm’s satellite presentation was described as astonishing, with a perfectly formed eye and extremely cold cloud tops near -90°C, indicative of a powerful and well-organized system. As of Monday, the hurricane’s center was located about 135 miles southwest of Kingston, Jamaica’s capital, moving slowly at around 3 mph. Hurricane-force winds extended up to 30 miles from its center, while tropical-storm-force winds reached outward up to 195 miles, ensuring a wide area of impact. The central pressure was recorded around 905 mbar, another indicator of its immense power. This storm is poised to be the most powerful ever to make a direct hit on Jamaica, surpassing Hurricane Gilbert of 1988.
A Slow and Perilous Trajectory
The projected path shows the core of Hurricane Melissa making a painstakingly slow turn toward the north, with a direct landfall expected on Jamaica’s southern coast on Tuesday. Forecasters predict the storm will push ashore in the St. Elizabeth Parish, somewhere between Black River and Treasure Beach, before carving a path across the west-central part of the island over a period of approximately six hours. The slow-moving nature of the hurricane is a primary concern, as it will prolong the duration of destructive winds and extreme rainfall.
After crossing Jamaica, Melissa is expected to continue on a northeastward track, moving over southeastern Cuba on Tuesday night and into Wednesday. Even after its interaction with Jamaica’s terrain, it is forecast to remain a powerful major hurricane, likely at Category 4 strength as it impacts Cuba. From there, the storm is projected to move across the southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday, still maintaining significant hurricane strength.
Catastrophic Flooding and Storm Surge Expected
Extreme Rainfall and Landslides
The primary threat from Melissa is the sheer volume of water it is expected to dump on the region. The National Hurricane Center has warned that rainfall totals could reach 15 to 30 inches across Jamaica, with isolated maximums of up to 40 inches in the mountains. Such amounts would dwarf the island’s average annual rainfall and will almost certainly lead to catastrophic flash flooding and numerous life-threatening landslides. Officials warned that many low-lying communities, including parts of the capital, Kingston, may not survive the flooding. The impact will be severe across southern and western parishes, which lie directly in the storm’s path.
Destructive Winds and Coastal Inundation
In addition to the rain, the storm will bring devastating winds. The eyewall, containing the most violent winds, is expected to cause total structural failure of some buildings, snap power poles, and flatten trees, leading to extensive infrastructure damage and long-lasting power outages. The entire island is expected to experience at least tropical-storm-force winds, with the most destructive hurricane-force winds concentrated in the central and western parishes.
A life-threatening storm surge of 9 to 13 feet above normal tide levels is also forecast for the southern coast near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. This coastal inundation will be accompanied by large and destructive waves, posing a severe threat to communities in parishes such as Westmoreland, Saint Elizabeth, Manchester, and Clarendon.
Official Warnings and Preparations
In response to the imminent threat, the Jamaican government has issued evacuation orders for vulnerable areas. Government minister Desmond McKenzie urged residents to clear drains and gullies and to store adequate supplies of water. At a press conference, he expressed grave concern for low-lying areas, particularly in Kingston, stating that no community there would be immune to the flooding.
Despite the dire forecasts, officials reported on Monday that too few people were moving to designated emergency shelters, especially in the parishes directly in the hurricane’s path. Authorities also issued warnings to travelers, with Kingston’s airport advising passengers not to come to the airport unless they had a confirmed flight. Hundreds of international travelers, including many from Britain, found themselves stranded as airlines began canceling flights.
Wider Caribbean on High Alert
The impact of Hurricane Melissa will extend beyond Jamaica. After crossing the island, the storm is forecast to strike southeastern Cuba as a major hurricane, bringing with it the threat of significant rainfall, storm surge, and destructive winds. Eastern Cuba is expected to receive 10 to 15 inches of rain. Southwestern Haiti and the southern Dominican Republic are also bracing for catastrophic flash flooding and landslides from the storm’s outer bands, with rainfall totals potentially isolating communities.
The southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands are also in the storm’s path and are expected to experience hurricane conditions later in the week. The storm serves as a stark reminder of the vulnerability of island nations in the Caribbean to increasingly powerful hurricanes, a phenomenon that many experts link to the warming effects of climate change.