In the village of Sazlibosna, set along the planned route of the vast Canal Istanbul project, 68-year-old Yasar Demirkaya sips tea at a local cafe, his worn prayer beads moving through his fingers. A fruit and vegetable seller, he fears the government-backed waterway will erase the only life he has ever known, threatening the small plot of land passed down from his grandparents. “I inherited a 5,000-square-metre plot from my grandparents,” he said, voicing a deep-seated anxiety that ripples through the community. “It could be taken from us. I’m worried, everyone is. Nobody knows what to do.” While his village is currently off-limits to development, that protection could change, leaving residents in a state of perpetual uncertainty.
This widespread apprehension stems from a megaproject first announced in 2011 by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who dubbed it a “crazy project.” The plan involves digging a 45-kilometer (28-mile) artificial waterway to connect the Black Sea with the Sea of Marmara, running parallel to the Bosphorus strait. Proponents envision sprawling commercial and residential zones, but opponents warn of an environmental catastrophe that could destroy vital nature reserves, deplete water resources, and devastate farmland crucial for Istanbul’s food supply. Although a groundbreaking ceremony was held in 2021, work on the canal itself has largely stalled, yet property construction along its path has surged, leading critics to label the venture less an infrastructure initiative and more of a real estate project in disguise.
A Project Mired in Uncertainty
Despite the official launch, tangible progress on the waterway is scant. The most visible sign of construction is a single bridge foundation laid across the proposed route. A significant hurdle has been securing the necessary funding for the estimated $1 billion canal. According to Pelin Pinar Giritlioglu, a professor at Istanbul University, major financing has yet to be secured. European banks, in particular, have been unwilling to back projects with such significant potential for ecological damage, and no alternative funding sources have been found.
This financial stalemate has not halted development on the canal’s periphery. In the past six months, real estate construction has accelerated dramatically. Near the Salizdere reservoir, journalists have observed tower blocks being erected by TOKI, the state-run housing agency. This paradox—a stalled canal and a booming property market—fuels the belief among critics that the primary motivation is land development. “The canal development has stalled, but the land grab is in full swing,” Giritlioglu stated. This activity has energized the local market, with real estate agencies multiplying in villages like Sazlibosna to cater to speculators buying up land.
The Human Cost of Development
The project’s shadow looms large over the lives of thousands of residents. The designated work area encompasses 21 villages with a combined population of more than 41,000 people. For many, like the older residents of Sazlibosna, this is the second time they have faced the threat of a large-scale eminent-domain project, having already witnessed the Sazlibosna river widened by a downstream dam in the 1990s.
Dispossession and Fear
The primary fear is the loss of land and livelihood. Farmers worry about where their animals will graze and how they will continue to make a living if their agricultural lands are rezoned for construction. The anxiety is compounded by a climate of apprehension, with many villagers declining to speak on camera for fear of repercussions. This follows the detention of several high-profile opponents of the project, including officials from Istanbul’s urban planning department. The uncertainty has left communities in limbo, unable to plan for a future that could be radically altered by government decree.
A Land Grab in Disguise
The rapid urbanization along the proposed 28-mile canal route is planned to support high-density housing for 1.2 million people. Speculators are already advertising waterside views and luxury condominiums, buying land at exorbitant prices. This transformation directly threatens the agricultural character of the region. Areas like Sazlibosna provide a significant amount of the fresh fruit and vegetables sold in Istanbul, and it remains unclear how the loss of this farmland would impact the city’s sustenance. An amendment to the Pasture Law paved the way for rezoning the region for construction, further solidifying fears that the project prioritizes real estate profits over local welfare and food security.
Widespread Environmental Concerns
Environmental advocates and scientists have raised numerous alarms about the irreversible damage the canal could inflict. The project is planned for the northern part of Istanbul, a region containing the city’s essential forests, water basins, and clean air sources. Critics argue that urbanization here will destroy the very ecosystems that sustain the metropolis.
Threats to Water and Farmland
One of the most pressing concerns is the project’s impact on Istanbul’s water supply. The canal route would cut through critical water basins, and opponents warn it could lead to their depletion. With the city already reliant on water piped from the Melen River, its water system faces the risk of a breakdown if local resources are compromised. Furthermore, the project would destroy valuable agricultural land, disrupting food supply chains and turning productive fields into concrete. Eight forest villages are slated to lose their official status as villages due to the development.
Disruption of Ecosystems
The canal threatens to destabilize the region’s fragile ecological balance. It would damage an important ecological corridor and could spread pollution from the Black Sea into the Sea of Marmara. The construction also poses a direct threat to wildlife. For generations, white storks have stopped in the area during their annual migration from East Africa to Europe. Residents have even built nesting platforms for the birds, which would see their migratory patterns disrupted by the massive construction. Scientists also warn that the project could create an urban heat island effect, raising the average temperature in the region and deepening the impacts of the climate crisis.
Dissent and Official Opposition
The project has faced stiff opposition since its inception. The Ministry of Environment and Urbanization approved the Environmental Impact Assessment (ÇED) Report in 2019 amidst escalating tensions with the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality, which has been a vocal critic. Legal experts and urban planners argue that the Canal Istanbul project contradicts existing upper-scale plan decisions, rendering it legally null and void. Opponents also highlight more pressing needs for public funds, such as retrofitting the more than 1.5 million houses in Istanbul at risk from a major earthquake, which scientific studies suggest is approaching. Despite these objections, the government has pushed forward, though the path to completion remains unclear. For villagers like Yasar Demirkaya, the future is a waiting game. “I don’t really believe Canal Istanbul will happen,” he said, before adding a caveat that captures the community’s unease: “(If it does) our village will lose its peace and quiet.”
