Australia has committed to a new, ambitious climate target for 2035, aiming to significantly reduce its greenhouse gas emissions. The plan, which requires halving the nation’s current emissions within a decade, places a sharp focus on every sector of the economy. However, the transport sector, with its rapidly growing carbon footprint, is emerging as a primary obstacle to achieving these goals, threatening to undermine the country’s progress if not addressed with immediate and substantial policy changes.
On its current trajectory, the transport industry is set to become Australia’s largest source of emissions by 2030. This sector, the nation’s third-largest emitter, presents a complex challenge due to the inherent difficulties in decarbonizing heavy transport, shipping, and aviation. While the government has laid out a roadmap centered on electrification and low-carbon fuels, experts caution that existing policies are insufficient to spur the transformative change required, putting the 2035 targets in serious jeopardy.
A New National Commitment
In a significant policy shift, the Australian government announced in September 2025 a target to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 62% to 70% below 2005 levels by the year 2035. This commitment will be formally submitted to the United Nations as part of Australia’s updated Nationally Determined Contribution under the Paris Agreement. The target range was informed by independent advice from the Climate Change Authority (CCA), which recommended the 62-70% range after revising an earlier, slightly higher suggestion.
The CCA’s advice concluded that this goal is feasible using current and emerging technologies, without relying on international offsets. Achieving it hinges on a rapid transition to renewable energy, widespread electrification of industry and transport, and major gains in energy efficiency. This new federal ambition sets the stage for a decade of profound economic and regulatory transformation, with every sector expected to contribute to the national effort.
The Growing Transport Problem
The transport sector is a critical component of Australia’s economy, but it is also a major and expanding source of pollution. It is currently responsible for 22% of the country’s total direct greenhouse gas emissions, making it the third-largest contributor. More concerning is its rate of growth; projections indicate that without intervention, transport will become the single largest emitting sector by 2030. This growth is fueled by an expanding population and economy, which drives increased demand for transport services.
Decarbonizing transport is notoriously difficult. While battery-electric technology is viable for passenger cars and light commercial vehicles, electrifying long-haul freight, shipping, and aviation with renewable energy remains a significant technical and logistical hurdle. These hard-to-abate areas require breakthroughs in low-carbon fuels and new infrastructure, representing a substantial long-term challenge that complicates the path to the 2035 goal.
The Government’s Strategy
To address this challenge, the government has released a Net Zero Plan, which includes a specific Transport and Infrastructure Net Zero Roadmap and Action Plan. This blueprint outlines the government’s primary strategies for curbing the sector’s environmental impact. The plan focuses heavily on the electrification of light vehicles, a significant expansion of public and private electric vehicle charging infrastructure, and the development of alternative low-carbon fuels for heavy transport sectors.
Electrification as a Core Pillar
The success of the transport strategy rests heavily on a rapid uptake of electric vehicles (EVs). According to modeling by the Climate Change Authority, meeting the 2035 target will require that half of all new light vehicles sold in that year are electric. This represents a monumental shift from the current market and necessitates strong policy incentives and regulatory support to accelerate the transition away from internal combustion engines.
Focus on Future Fuels
For heavy vehicles, aviation, and maritime transport, the government’s plan places a significant bet on the development and adoption of low-carbon fuels, particularly hydrogen. The roadmap includes investing in the enabling infrastructure needed to produce and distribute these fuels. However, some research indicates that for road freight, hydrogen-powered trucks are considerably less efficient than battery-electric alternatives, raising questions about the long-term viability and cost-effectiveness of this approach.
Addressing Policy Deficiencies
Despite the strategic framework, analysts argue that the government’s current policy settings are not robust enough to achieve the necessary emissions reductions. A critical missing piece has been a mandatory light vehicle emissions standard, a policy adopted by most other developed nations to drive efficiency and reduce pollution. Such standards compel manufacturers to sell more efficient and low-emission vehicles.
The Climate Change Authority has previously modeled the impact of such a standard, demonstrating its potential for significant cost-effective emission reductions. One proposal suggested that progressively tightening standards could nearly halve the carbon dioxide emissions of new vehicles. While this would increase the average upfront cost of a new car by an estimated $1,500, the fuel savings for the owner would be substantial, amounting to approximately $8,500 over the vehicle’s lifespan. The implementation of such a standard is projected to avoid millions of tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions.
The Path to 2035
The next decade will be critical. The government’s plan emphasizes collaboration with industry, the private sector, and all levels of government to mobilize the significant investment required for new technologies and infrastructure. Key priorities include not only electrifying the vehicle fleet but also improving system-wide efficiencies in freight and supply chains and encouraging a shift towards more active and public transport options.
Success is far from guaranteed. Over-reliance on technologies that are not yet commercially mature or proven at scale, such as hydrogen for freight, introduces a level of risk to the strategy. Critics warn that without clear, enforceable policies that prioritize proven solutions like electrification and a rapid shift to renewables, Australia risks locking in high emissions for years to come. Every year of delay increases the difficulty and cost of meeting the 2035 target and the ultimate goal of net zero by 2050, making immediate and decisive action essential.