A new scientific analysis concludes that human-caused climate change amplified the fury of Hurricane Melissa, which devastated several Caribbean nations in late October. The storm, one of the strongest Atlantic hurricanes ever to make landfall, subjected the region to winds and rainfall that were significantly more destructive than they would have been in a world without elevated greenhouse gas levels. The findings come from a rapid attribution study conducted by an international team of climate scientists, who determined that a warmer climate directly supercharged the hurricane’s most dangerous elements.
The research, conducted by the World Weather Attribution group, provides specific metrics for this intensification, finding that climate change increased Melissa’s peak wind speeds by 7% and made its extreme rainfall 16% more intense. This boost turned an already dangerous storm into a catastrophic event, causing dozens of deaths, obliterating homes and infrastructure, and crippling local economies across Jamaica, Cuba, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic. The analysis highlights a dangerous trend of tropical cyclones growing stronger and intensifying more quickly, a new reality that scientists have long warned would be a consequence of a warming planet.
Fueling the Hurricane’s Engine
Hurricane Melissa drew its immense power from abnormally warm ocean waters in the Caribbean. The scientific analysis revealed that sea surface temperatures in the storm’s path were approximately 1.4 to 1.5 degrees Celsius (about 2.5 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than they were in the pre-industrial era. Warmer oceans act as the primary fuel source for hurricanes; as more heat and moisture rise from the sea, they are converted into the kinetic energy of the storm’s winds. This excess heat allows a storm to sustain higher wind speeds and carry a vastly larger volume of water.
Theodore Keeping, a climate scientist who contributed to the analysis, explained that warmer ocean temperatures are the engine that drives a hurricane. The direct consequence of this superheated fuel was a storm of historic proportions. Melissa struck Jamaica on October 28 as a Category 5 hurricane, with sustained winds peaking at a terrifying 185 mph. In a climate without the influence of human-induced warming, a rare storm like Melissa would have had wind speeds about 10 mph less powerful, which would have measurably reduced the scale of the destruction. The study also found that the hot and humid atmospheric conditions that allowed the storm to thrive are now six times more likely to occur than they were in the past.
The Science of Attribution
Pinpointing Climate’s Influence
The findings are based on a field of climate science known as extreme event attribution. Researchers use a combination of weather observations and sophisticated computer models to analyze an extreme weather event. They simulate the event as it happened and then run further simulations of the same event in a counterfactual world—one without the 1.3 degrees Celsius of global warming that has occurred since the industrial revolution. By comparing these simulations, scientists can isolate and quantify the specific influence of human-caused climate change on a storm’s characteristics.
This rigorous, peer-reviewed methodology allows scientists to move beyond general statements about climate change and provide concrete data on its role in specific disasters. The World Weather Attribution initiative specializes in conducting these analyses rapidly, often publishing their findings within weeks of an event. This speed is crucial for informing conversations about climate adaptation, disaster recovery, and the urgent need to reduce emissions. The research on Hurricane Melissa provides clear evidence that the burning of fossil fuels had a direct and measurable impact on the storm’s destructive capacity.
A New Era of Rapid Intensification
One of the most alarming aspects of Hurricane Melissa was the speed at which it strengthened—a phenomenon known as rapid intensification. Climate experts define this as an increase in a cyclone’s maximum sustained winds of at least 35 mph in a 24-hour period. Melissa far exceeded this threshold, with its winds escalating from 68 mph to 139 mph in just 24 hours. In another period, the storm’s winds jumped from 70 mph to 185 mph in less than three days. This explosive growth left little time for communities to prepare for the true scale of the approaching catastrophe.
This trend is not isolated to Melissa; it was the fourth storm in the Atlantic to undergo rapid intensification this year alone. Scientists have linked the increasing frequency of this phenomenon directly to the warmer oceans and higher atmospheric moisture content caused by climate change. With more thermal energy available, storms can develop and strengthen at a rate that was once rare. This new reality poses a profound challenge for forecasters and emergency management officials, as historical data becomes a less reliable guide for predicting a storm’s potential behavior.
Widespread Devastation Across the Caribbean
The consequences of Melissa’s amplified power were catastrophic for the nations in its path. In Jamaica, where the storm made landfall at its peak intensity, entire communities were transformed into disaster zones. The ferocious winds tore roofs from homes and damaged critical infrastructure, including hospitals. Torrential rainfall, made 16% heavier by climate change, triggered widespread flooding and landslides that blocked roads and isolated towns. Across the island, entire fields of crops were wiped out, destroying livelihoods and threatening food security.
The storm continued its destructive track across the Caribbean, inflicting severe damage on Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and Cuba. Hundreds of thousands of people were displaced from their homes as the hurricane barreled through the region. The human cost was immense, with at least 61 lives lost across the affected islands. The economic damage is estimated to be in the billions of dollars, a staggering blow for nations that already face significant economic challenges.
A Glimpse into a Warmer Future
Limits of Adaptation
Scientists involved in the study warn that Hurricane Melissa is a clear signal of what to expect in a world that continues to warm. Jaka Campbell, a senior lecturer at the University of the West Indies in Jamaica, described the event as “the canary in the coal mine,” a warning of the dangerous new reality created by warming oceans. The analysis serves as a stark reminder that extreme weather events are becoming more frequent and more intense.
Friederike Otto, a leading climate scientist from Imperial College London and a key contributor to the study, offered a sobering perspective on the future. She stated that monster storms like Melissa are becoming so intense that they will soon push millions of people beyond their ability to adapt. This assessment underscores a critical point: while investments in stronger infrastructure and better warning systems are essential, they may not be enough to protect vulnerable populations if greenhouse gas emissions are not curtailed. Otto concluded that unless the world stops burning coal, oil, and gas, more and more countries will reach these limits, facing storms that are simply too powerful to withstand.