A sweeping global study of 1,400 senior executives has found that ensuring national energy resilience has decisively overtaken international climate cooperation as the main driver of the world’s energy transition. The research reveals a strategic pivot, spurred by geopolitical instability and supply chain volatility, toward developing robust, independent, and digitally managed energy systems. Corporate and government leaders now see artificial intelligence and widespread digitalization as indispensable tools for navigating this new landscape, balancing the urgent need for energy sovereignty with long-term decarbonization goals.
The Siemens Infrastructure Transition Monitor 2025 shows a significant shift in priorities since 2023, with resilient energy supply now ranked as the top governmental concern. This change reflects a broader structural evolution in energy strategy, with more than three-fifths of leaders believing future energy systems will rely more on local and regional production than global trade. However, this focus on security is coupled with rising pessimism about climate targets; only 37% of executives are confident in meeting their 2030 decarbonization goals, a drop from 44% in 2023. This underscores a critical tension between immediate needs and future sustainability, with technology poised to bridge the gap.
Geopolitical Shifts Redefine Energy Priorities
The move toward energy autonomy is a direct response to a period of heightened global instability. Recent events have exposed the vulnerabilities of interconnected global energy markets, prompting nations to prioritize the security of their own supplies. The study indicates that national energy independence saw one of the largest increases in importance among infrastructure goals since 2023. This inward turn is not merely a political trend but a fundamental reshaping of infrastructure investment and strategy, emphasizing self-sufficiency through domestic renewable energy integration, advanced energy storage, and modernized grid systems.
This “resilience-first” approach is altering the character of the energy transition from what was once a globally coordinated effort into a series of national and regional projects aimed at ensuring stability. According to Matthias Rebellius, a managing board member at Siemens AG, this new phase is defined by national security goals overtaking global collaboration on decarbonization. The focus is on building systems that can withstand shocks, whether from international conflicts, supply chain disruptions, or the increasing frequency of extreme weather events. This positions resilience not as a competitor to climate action, but as a necessary precondition for sustained progress.
The Dual Role of AI and Digitalization
In this new paradigm, technology serves a dual purpose: shoring up national infrastructure while simultaneously enabling decarbonization. Digitalization was identified by executives as the second most critical factor for accelerating the clean energy transition, surpassed only by energy storage. More than two-thirds (66%) of respondents believe AI is making critical infrastructure more resilient, while 59% are already using it to support decarbonization in their operations.
Fortifying Critical Infrastructure
AI is being deployed to create intelligent, self-monitoring energy grids. Predictive maintenance, powered by AI algorithms, is a key application, allowing utilities to anticipate and prevent equipment failures before they cause outages. By analyzing vast streams of data from sensors on components like transformers and transmission lines, AI can detect subtle signs of degradation, enabling proactive repairs that extend asset life and reduce costs. This approach transforms traditional, reactive maintenance into a forward-looking strategy that enhances grid reliability and resilience against both physical and cyber threats. Some AI systems can analyze images of grid equipment to spot vulnerabilities, while others use localized mapping to forecast system performance by analyzing millions of data points, including weather and outage history.
Accelerating Decarbonization Efforts
Beyond defense, AI is an active tool for offense in the fight against climate change. It is essential for managing the complexity of grids that are increasingly reliant on intermittent renewable sources like wind and solar. AI algorithms can forecast energy production and demand with high accuracy, allowing grid operators to balance loads and integrate renewables more seamlessly. This capability is crucial for maximizing the efficiency of green energy and ensuring a stable supply. In the industrial sector, which faces significant decarbonization hurdles, AI and digital twins—virtual replicas of physical systems—are being used to optimize production processes and manage energy loads in real time, reducing waste and emissions without sacrificing output.
A Waning Confidence in Climate Timelines
Despite the technological optimism, the study reveals a growing sense of pragmatism—or pessimism—about the pace of decarbonization. The decline in confidence regarding 2030 targets is a stark indicator of the immense challenges ahead. This sentiment is further evidenced by the expectation of 57% of global executives that investment in fossil fuels will actually increase over the next two years as a short-term measure to guarantee energy security. This suggests that while the long-term goal of net zero remains, the path there is being rerouted to address immediate resilience concerns, potentially delaying progress on emissions reduction.
Emerging Solutions for Energy Autonomy
To navigate the complexities of a decentralized, renewable-heavy energy system, new concepts and technologies are coming to the forefront. The report highlights the modernization of energy grids and the development of innovative market mechanisms as key levers for pursuing resilience and decarbonization in parallel.
The Rise of Flexibility Markets
A crucial innovation highlighted in the report is the development of “flexibility markets.” These are platforms where grid operators can procure adjustments in electricity demand or supply from a variety of distributed energy resources, such as battery storage operators, electric vehicles, and industrial facilities. In essence, these markets create a system to trade flexibility; for instance, a factory might be paid to temporarily reduce its energy consumption during a period of high demand, or an owner of solar panels could be incentivized to feed excess power into the grid. This market-based approach allows for real-time, cross-border management of energy flows, making the grid more adaptable and efficient without costly physical upgrades. As SAP’s Daniela Haldy-Sellmann noted, “We’re not just building infrastructure anymore. We’re building flexibility markets.”
Intelligent Buildings and Factories
The role of buildings is also becoming more strategic. No longer passive consumers of energy, smart buildings equipped with digital platforms and AI can now interact dynamically with the grid. They can anticipate energy demand, optimize their own performance, and even provide stability to the grid by adjusting consumption patterns autonomously. This intelligent infrastructure is critical for managing demand-side loads effectively. Brian Motherway of the International Energy Agency emphasized that while AI opens new avenues for energy management, it doesn’t replace foundational elements like efficient equipment and smart design. In parallel, industries are using digital tools to weather cost pressures and advance their own green transitions, though progress is often hampered by external factors.
Overcoming Policy and Investment Hurdles
While technology provides powerful tools, its deployment is often constrained by regulatory and economic realities. The report finds that policy uncertainty remains a significant barrier to progress. Over half of the industrial executives surveyed reported that unclear or unstable energy policies delay their decisions to invest in clean technologies. This hesitation stalls the long-term capital needed to accelerate the industrial transition. Stable, predictable, and forward-looking regulation is therefore essential to unlock private investment and create a market environment where innovative solutions like AI and flexibility markets can thrive and scale, ultimately enabling nations to achieve the dual goals of energy security and a sustainable future.
