A new United Nations analysis reveals that current national climate pledges are severely inadequate, projecting a global emissions reduction of only about 17 percent from 2019 levels by 2035. This falls dangerously short of the cuts required to meet the Paris Agreement’s primary goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, according to the latest UNFCCC report that reviewed climate plans from 64 countries.
The report highlights a significant “emissions gap” between existing commitments and the necessary action to avert the most severe impacts of climate change. To align with the 1.5°C pathway, nations must collectively slash emissions by 57 percent by 2035. The current trajectory, based on submitted plans, suggests the world is on a path for a temperature increase between 2.4 and 2.6 degrees Celsius by the end of the century, a level that scientists warn would trigger catastrophic environmental consequences.
Inadequate Global Ambition
The UNFCCC’s recent NDC Synthesis Report provides a stark assessment of the world’s collective climate ambition. The analysis, which aggregated the nationally determined contributions (NDCs) submitted by dozens of countries as of September 30, 2025, shows that even if fully implemented, these plans are insufficient. The projected 17 percent reduction from 2019 emission levels is a fraction of the 57 percent cut deemed necessary by 2035 to keep the 1.5°C target viable. The UN Environment Programme (UNEP) has consistently warned of this gap, noting in its annual “Emissions Gap Report” series that the world is failing to deliver the transformative action needed. Current policies, if unchanged, could lead to a global temperature rise of 2.8°C this century.
An Incomplete and Troubling Picture
The latest synthesis report presents an incomplete, yet troubling, snapshot of global efforts. The 64 countries whose climate plans were included in the analysis represent only about 30 percent of global emissions. A significant number of nations, including some major emitters within the G20, had not formally submitted their updated NDCs by the cutoff date. This means that countries responsible for nearly two-thirds of the world’s greenhouse gas output were not factored into the headline findings. Experts caution that while the transition to a low-carbon economy is underway, the pace must shift from a “jog to an all-out sprint” to close the immense gap between promises and the requirements of the Paris Agreement.
The Path to 1.5°C Narrows
To stabilize the climate at 1.5°C of warming, the global community must achieve a peak in emissions before 2025 and reach net-zero carbon dioxide emissions by the early 2050s. UNEP analysis indicates that cuts of 42 percent are needed by 2030, a goal that appears increasingly remote without a radical increase in ambition. A failure to strengthen NDCs and implement immediate, deep cuts would put the world on course for a temperature increase of 2.6 to 3.1°C, leading to severe and debilitating impacts on ecosystems, economies, and human societies. Despite the grim outlook, experts maintain that achieving the 1.5°C target remains technically possible through a rapid and widespread system transformation.
Calls for Urgent System-Wide Transformation
The UN reports are not just a warning but also a call for decisive action ahead of the next major climate conference, COP30. Achieving the necessary emissions reductions requires a whole-of-government approach, a minimum six-fold increase in mitigation investments, and enhanced international collaboration. The responsibility falls heavily on the G20 nations, which are the largest emitters, to lead the way. Solutions highlighted include rapidly scaling up renewable energy sources like solar and wind, decarbonizing transport, and protecting forests. Leaders are urged to treat the findings as a rallying cry for an accelerated and practical plan to save the 1.5°C goal from becoming unattainable.
