New research suggests that holding conspiratorial beliefs is a remarkably mainstream phenomenon, extending far beyond the fringe margins of society. A large-scale survey found that more than three-quarters of Americans entertain at least one idea rooted in a conspiracy narrative, challenging the stereotype of believers as a small or isolated group. This tendency is not confined to one political ideology, with recent events showing how quickly competing and contradictory theories can take root across the entire political spectrum after a major, ambiguous public event.
The findings illustrate that a significant portion of the population is receptive to explanations for events that posit secret plots by powerful actors. This widespread belief system appears to be a consistent feature of human psychology rather than a recent aberration. Researchers note that while the content of these theories varies widely, the underlying thought processes and psychological drivers are often the same. Understanding this phenomenon is critical, as the proliferation of such beliefs carries tangible consequences for public health, political stability, and trust in institutions.
Anatomy of a Modern Conspiracy
The rapid spread of conspiratorial ideas was recently captured in a study conducted in the aftermath of the July 2024 assassination attempt on a presidential candidate. Researchers tracking narratives in real-time found that unsubstantiated theories quickly emerged and gained traction among both left- and right-leaning citizens. One theory, popular on the right, suggested the attack was secretly planned by Democratic operatives. Another, which spread on the left, claimed Republicans had staged the event to generate sympathy for the candidate. The study revealed a striking level of exposure and belief in a short period.
Within weeks of the event, 41% of survey respondents reported having heard the right-leaning theory, and 53% were aware of the left-leaning one. Among those who had heard the theory about Democratic operatives, a combined 29% considered it “very likely” or “somewhat likely” to be true. Social media was the most common vector for exposure, with over half of those aware of either theory reporting they encountered it on these platforms. However, the research hinted at a stronger pathway of influence through personal connections; information heard from a known person was more closely correlated with belief than information seen on television or social media.
The Psychology of Belief
Scientific inquiry into conspiratorial thinking reveals that it is often driven by deeply rooted and predictable psychological processes, not necessarily by mental pathology. Researchers point to the existence of a “conspiracy mindset,” a general predisposition to interpret events as the product of secret, malevolent plots. The single best predictor of belief in any one conspiracy theory is belief in another, unrelated one. This mindset can lead individuals to endorse mutually contradictory theories simultaneously, such as believing a famous figure was murdered while also believing they faked their own death.
Drivers and Defenses
These beliefs are typically rooted in emotional responses rather than rational analysis. Conspiracy theories offer simple, emotionally satisfying narratives for complex or frightening events, often by identifying a clear enemy. Once adopted, these beliefs are famously resistant to falsification. From a believer’s perspective, both a lack of evidence for the theory and the presence of strong evidence against it are reinterpreted as proof of the conspiracy’s power and sophistication in covering its tracks. This creates a self-sealing, circular logic that makes the belief a matter of faith rather than a hypothesis that can be tested or disproven.
A Widespread Social Phenomenon
Data consistently shows that conspiratorial thinking is neither new nor geographically isolated. While much of the research has been conducted in Western nations, studies have documented widespread conspiracy beliefs in countries across Europe, Asia, and the Middle East, indicating it is a universal human tendency. In the United States, for example, a 2016 study found that 10% of the public believed the “chemtrail” conspiracy theory was completely true, while another 20% to 30% felt it was somewhat true.
Belief is also strongly tied to social and group identity. Ideological motivations and a sense of intergroup conflict are powerful predictors of conspiracy endorsement. Research has found that members of stigmatized minority groups, who may have legitimate historical reasons to distrust powerful majority groups, can be more inclined to believe in conspiracies. Similarly, traits associated with intergroup defensiveness, such as collective narcissism—an exaggerated belief in an ingroup’s greatness—are also linked to higher levels of conspiratorial thinking.
Challenging a Narrative of Decline
Despite a pervasive sense that things are getting worse, compelling evidence suggests that belief in conspiracy theories may not be increasing over time. A 2022 analysis of polling data across several decades and countries found no significant rise in conspiracism. This stands in contrast to public perception; a recent poll found that 73% of Americans believe conspiracy theories are “out of control,” with 59% agreeing that people are more likely to believe them now than 25 years ago.
Researchers argue that the heightened visibility of conspiracy theories on the internet and social media does not necessarily mean that a higher percentage of the population believes them. The study tracked beliefs in 46 different conspiracy theories over time and analyzed general conspiracy thinking from 2012 to 2021, failing to find a clear upward trend. Even during the COVID-19 pandemic, a period ripe for such theories, belief in pandemic-related conspiracies remained troublingly high but stable. The data suggest that conspiracism has long been a feature of society at significant levels, rather than a new or escalating crisis.
Real-World Consequences of Belief
The prevalence of conspiracy theories is more than a benign cultural quirk; it has measurable and often harmful effects on society. Widespread belief in conspiracies has been linked to negative public health outcomes, including the rejection of vaccines and the subsequent outbreak of preventable diseases. It can corrode social trust, fuel political polarization, and reduce confidence in scientific evidence and democratic institutions.
Furthermore, these narratives can provide ideological reinforcement for extremist groups and contribute to radicalization. The challenge for modern society, therefore, is not necessarily to combat a sudden rise in new believers, but to better understand and mitigate the impact of a deeply ingrained and persistent form of social cognition that affects a substantial portion of the population across all cultures and demographics.
