A growing number of young men are finding themselves on the sidelines of the economy, facing a future where their skills are increasingly obsolete. While the labor market shows signs of tightness, a significant portion of men under 25 are neither working nor actively seeking employment, a trend that points to a brewing crisis at the intersection of technology, education, and traditional notions of masculinity. This is not a fleeting issue but a long-term structural shift, with automation and artificial intelligence poised to reshape the workforce in ways that could leave a generation of young men behind.
The core of the problem lies in a deepening mismatch between the jobs available and the skills possessed by many young men. Male-dominated industries, particularly those reliant on manual labor and routine tasks, are at the forefront of the automation wave, leaving a void that the current education and training systems are struggling to fill. The consequences are far-reaching, with declining labor force participation among young men without a bachelor’s degree becoming a persistent trend. As the economy barrels toward a more automated future, the question of how to equip young men with the skills and adaptability to thrive becomes increasingly urgent.
The Automation Wave’s Gendered Impact
The encroachment of automation into the workplace is not a uniform phenomenon; it is unfolding in waves, each with a distinct character and a different impact on the labor market. The first wave, driven by algorithms, targeted simple computational tasks. The second, or “augmentation” wave, which is currently underway, focuses on automating repeatable tasks and analyzing unstructured data. The third, and arguably most transformative, is the “autonomy” wave, which will see machines taking on complex problem-solving in dynamic real-world situations.
While the initial waves of automation have had a significant impact on female-dominated roles, research suggests that the third wave will disproportionately affect men. Industries like construction and manufacturing, which are heavily male-dominated, will be hit hardest by the rise of autonomous machinery and robotics. By the mid-2030s, as the autonomy wave reaches its peak, an estimated 34% of male jobs are at risk of automation, compared to 26% for women. This gendered discrepancy is even more pronounced among younger workers, with 46% of jobs held by men under 25 facing potential automation, compared to 26% for young women.
A Widening Skills Gulf
The looming threat of automation is compounded by a pre-existing “skills mismatch” that has been hollowing out opportunities for young men for years. The labor force participation of young men without a four-year college degree has been on a steady decline since the early 2000s, a trend that stands in stark contrast to that of their female counterparts. In 1970, nearly all young men with a high school diploma were in the labor force; by 2013, that number had dropped to 88%, and it has continued to stagnate.
This decline is not simply a matter of motivation; it is a reflection of a changing economic landscape. The demand for routine manual labor, the traditional entry point for many young men into the workforce, is shrinking. At the same time, jobs that rely on social and emotional skills, such as those in healthcare and education, are growing—but these are fields that have historically been associated with femininity. This leaves many young men in a precarious position, with their skills and career aspirations misaligned with the growth areas of the modern economy.
The “New” Blue-Collar Renaissance
In the face of these challenges, a surprising counter-trend is emerging: a renewed interest in skilled trades. Young people, including a significant number of men, are increasingly turning to professions like electricians, plumbers, welders, and HVAC technicians. These jobs, which require extensive training and licensing, are seen as a safe haven from the encroaching tide of automation. A recent survey found that 77% of Gen Zers consider it important that their future job is difficult to automate, and many point to the skilled trades as a prime example.
This “new” blue-collar movement is driven by a confluence of factors. The skyrocketing cost of college tuition and the burden of student loan debt are leading many to question the value of a traditional four-year degree. At the same time, the rise of AI is starting to erode the security of entry-level white-collar jobs that were once the exclusive domain of college graduates. For a growing number of young men, the path to a stable and prosperous future lies not in a cubicle but on a construction site or in a workshop.
Rethinking Masculinity and Work
The challenges facing young men in the age of automation are not just economic; they are also deeply intertwined with cultural and identity issues. For generations, manual labor has been closely linked to traditional notions of masculinity, and for some young men, this preference remains strong. This can create a significant barrier to transitioning into new and emerging fields, particularly those that are perceived as “feminine.”
Addressing this challenge requires more than just offering digital upskilling programs. It necessitates what some experts call a “rupturing process,” a disruption of long-held ideas about masculinity and work. This can be achieved through community-based programs, mentorship from relatable role models, and flexible and practical education pathways that speak directly to the experiences and aspirations of young men. By broadening the definition of “men’s work,” it is possible to open up a wider range of career possibilities and help young men find their place in the new economy.
Charting a New Course: Policy and Education
There is no single solution to the complex challenges facing young men in the age of automation. A multifaceted approach is needed, involving collaboration between governments, employers, and educational institutions. Lifelong learning and digital upskilling initiatives are a good start, but they must be tailored to the specific needs of this demographic. This means going beyond generic training programs and creating targeted interventions that address the cultural and structural barriers that shape job choices.
Vocational schooling and registered apprenticeships have a crucial role to play, but they must be modernized to align with the high-growth jobs of the future. This could include a greater emphasis on fields like healthcare, which are projected to grow rapidly in the coming years. Furthermore, policies that support workers through transitions, such as gender-sensitive reskilling programs and expanded access to childcare and paid family leave, will be essential to ensuring that both men and women can navigate the disruptions of the automated economy.
The Road Ahead
The future of work for young men is at a crossroads. The rise of automation and artificial intelligence presents both a significant threat and a unique opportunity. If left unaddressed, the trends of declining labor force participation and widening skills gaps could lead to a generation of young men being left behind. However, with proactive and targeted interventions, it is possible to turn this challenge into a catalyst for positive change.
By investing in modernized vocational training, fostering a culture of lifelong learning, and challenging outdated notions of masculinity and work, we can equip young men with the skills and adaptability they need to thrive in the 21st-century economy. The road ahead will not be easy, but by working together, we can ensure that the future of work is a future that includes everyone.
