A new global analysis reveals that the most socially and economically destructive wildfires have been escalating dramatically, occurring more than four times as often in recent years than they did in the 1980s. The research, published in the journal Science, signals a dangerous shift in the nature of fire globally, driven by a well-documented surge in extreme weather conditions linked to climate change.
Instead of focusing on the total area burned, a team of international scientists measured the impact of fires by their human and financial costs. They found that this new class of catastrophic fire is not just becoming more common but also more severe, with fatal blazes and billion-dollar events accelerating sharply since 2015. According to the study’s lead author, Dr. Calum Cunningham of the University of Tasmania, the findings show the world is entering an era of more profound wildfire impacts that demand new strategies for adaptation and mitigation.
A New Metric for Wildfire Disaster
The study forged a different path for evaluating wildfire severity. Traditionally, fire seasons have been assessed by the total acreage burned. This research, however, focused on socioeconomic consequences to identify the most disastrous events over the past four decades. A team of fire scientists from Australia, the United States, and Germany developed a new framework for their analysis.
Analyzing Impact Over Area
Researchers defined a disastrous fire as one that either caused the deaths of 10 or more people or ranked among the 200 most economically damaging relative to a nation’s gross domestic product (GDP). This method allowed the scientists to directly compare the societal toll of fires across different countries and economic conditions, while adjusting for inflation. The approach captures the true human cost of a blaze, which is often lost when looking at burned area alone.
Four Decades of Data
To build their historical analysis, the scientists drew from global reinsurance data and publicly accessible international disaster databases, including EM-DAT and NatCatService. This dataset spanned from 1980 through 2023, providing a comprehensive catalog of catastrophic events. By examining these records, the team identified and tracked the frequency, intensity, and location of the world’s most destructive fires over a 44-year period.
Accelerating Frequency and Cost
The study’s results paint a clear picture of a rapidly worsening global fire problem. The frequency of these high-impact fires has increased approximately 4.4 times since the 1980s. The data shows a distinct escalation point around 2015, which the paper notes coincided with a rise in extreme climatic conditions. This trend highlights a fundamental change in how fires behave and the danger they pose to communities worldwide.
A Sharp Post-2015 Increase
The analysis revealed that 43% of the 200 most damaging fires recorded since 1980 have occurred in just the last 10 years of the study period. During the 1980s, the world experienced an average of two such catastrophic fires annually. In stark contrast, from 2014 to 2023, that average jumped to nearly nine of these disastrous events per year, reaching a peak of 13 in 2021.
Human and Financial Toll
The human and economic costs have surged alongside the frequency. Wildfires that caused 10 or more fatalities have tripled in frequency since 1980. In parallel, the economic damage inflicted by these events has increased more than fourfold during the same period. More than half of all fires that resulted in damages exceeding one billion U.S. dollars have happened since 2015, underscoring the escalating financial burden on society.
The Influence of a Changing Climate
The paper establishes a strong connection between the rise in devastating fires and a warming planet. The authors state that the disasters are “inextricably linked” to climatic conditions that are becoming more common and more severe due to human-caused climate change. While climate is the primary driver, human settlement patterns also play a critical role in increasing the risk of disaster.
Extreme Weather Conditions
Half of the disastrous fires analyzed in the study occurred during the most extreme weather conditions ever recorded for their respective locations. These are conditions that would normally be expected only once every three years but are now happening more often. The researchers noted that since 1980, atmospheric dryness has increased by 2.4 times and severe drought has increased by 3.4 times, creating environments primed for uncontrollable fires.
Human Encroachment
A contributing factor to the rising damage is the expansion of human development into fire-prone areas, often called the wildland-urban interface. As more communities are built in or near flammable landscapes, the potential for catastrophic human and economic losses grows. This increased exposure means that when fires do occur under extreme weather, they are more likely to become societal disasters.
Global Hotspots Identified
While the study demonstrates a global trend, it also found that certain ecosystems are bearing a disproportionate share of the burden. Specific biomes, characterized by their climate and vegetation, have become hotspots for disastrous wildfires. These regions have suffered from catastrophic fires far more often than would be expected based on their land area alone.
Disproportionately Affected Biomes
The most severely affected areas include Mediterranean forests, woodlands, and scrub biomes. These regions are found across Southern Europe, the western United States, southern South America, South Africa, and southern Australia. Temperate conifer forests, such as those in western North America, were also identified as being at exceptionally high risk. Europe and North America lead in the total number of economically damaging fires.
Quantifying Regional Risk
The numbers reveal a striking geographic disparity in risk. In the regions characterized by a Mediterranean climate, disastrous fire incidents occurred 12.1 times more frequently than would be anticipated based on their proportional land area. Similarly, temperate coniferous forests experienced these disasters at a rate 4.3 times greater than expected. This highlights the acute vulnerability of these specific ecosystems to climate-driven fire events.
An Era of Unstoppable Fires
The researchers conclude that the world is facing a new reality of wildfire. Co-author Professor David Bowman stated that climate change has “fundamentally altered the game,” creating fires that burn under weather conditions more dangerous than those faced by previous generations. The authors call for an urgent shift in focus from simply fighting fires to adapting how society lives with this growing threat.
The study suggests that conventional firefighting methods are often insufficient against these modern, weather-driven megafires. “These aren’t just bigger fires,” Dr. Cunningham said. “They’re fires occurring under increasingly extreme weather conditions that make them unstoppable.” The paper advocates for combining modern approaches with Indigenous fire management knowledge to build resilience and better prepare for a future where catastrophic fires are more common.